According to a new poll from RBC Capital Markets, 70% of Wall Street insiders believe that President Donald Trump is on course for a second term. Apparently looking at the field of Democratic candidates and seeing no one who captures the public’s imagination like the incumbent, traders, investors, and brokers think Trump has what it takes to cruise through to re-election.
“Most expect Trump to win in 2020, but there’s still some nervousness around the event,” said Lori Calvasina of RBC. “67% of our March 2019 survey respondents believe that Joe Biden is seen as the most acceptable Democratic candidate by the stock market for the White House. No other candidate got a significant number of votes.”
Really? No one on Wall Street is clamoring for the socialist Bernie Sanders? No one is really itching for avowed Wall Street enemy Elizabeth Warren to come in and break up the banks and impose economy-crushing regulations? How shocking.
While it’s interesting to see how Wall Street insiders feel about the coming election, CNBC warns that it’s not always a reliable predictor.
“During the 2016 election, a CNBC Fed Survey found that 80 percent of respondents saw Democrat Hillary Clinton winning the presidency, well ahead of the 13 percent who thought Trump would win,” they noted.
Well, in fairness, almost everyone in the mainstream got that one wrong.
With the Mueller investigation behind him, the door is wide open for Trump to mount a successful bid for a second term in the White House. The economy is positively crushing expectations, consumer confidence is through the roof, the Dow Jones is soaring, and unemployment is at near-record lows. Trump’s financial resume alone should be enough to secure him another four years in office. Other issues – immigration, for instance – may divide the electorate, but everyone wants to see a booming economy. We would assume everyone is glad to see ISIS obliterated as well, but you never can really tell when it comes to Democrats.
Still, we’re far from the point where we can afford to get cocky. There’s a long, long way to go before next November, and we don’t even have the slightest idea who Trump will be up against in the general election. For all we know, the Democratic nominee will be someone who isn’t even officially in the running yet. Furthermore, all of this time will give the media plenty of opportunity to dig up some phony scandal and run it into the ground. Like 2016, we have no choice but to view Trump as the underdog. He (and we) are up against the entire political/media Establishment once more.
On the other hand, that Establishment is not nearly as mighty as it once appeared.