It’s become a matter of political shorthand to use the figure “11 million” when estimating how many illegal immigrants are currently living in the U.S., but a new analysis of census data indicates that number might be outdated. Using federal data from 2015, the Center for Immigration Studies found that there might be as many as 15.7 million illegal immigrants in the country today – and another 45.3 million when you count legal immigrants and their U.S.-born children.

“These numbers raise profound questions that are seldom even asked: What number of immigrants can be assimilated? What is the absorption capacity of our schools, health care system, infrastructure, and labor market? What is the effect on the environment and quality of life from significantly increasing the nation’s population density?” asked Steven Camarota, CIS’s director of research.

The study comes on the heels of a new poll from A.T. Kearney that shows a profound shift in the way Americans feel about immigration, both legal and illegal. According to the survey, 61% of Americans believe that “continued immigration into the country jeopardizes the United States.”

Taken together, this new information should provide answers to the pundit class, which is still trying to figure out why Donald Trump has proven so popular in his campaign for president. While the media is running around telling everyone that Trump is a racist, xenophobic monster, his supporters see in him a man finally willing to put American interests before the rest of the world. And while liberals regard this viewpoint as disgusting and “jingoistic,” everyday Americans rightfully believe that there is nothing wrong with rallying around a national identity. It’s not about some simmering hatred of Hispanics; it’s about enforcing the law, protecting our jobs, and preserving our culture.

And it is a clear repudiation of the Republican Party, which has spent the last four years moving further and further towards Obama’s dream of immigration reform. That dream, which is less about reform and more about dismantling our border laws, is seen by many in the party as the only way to bring Hispanics into the big tent. As always, Republicans assume that the only way they can compete with Democrats is to become more like them. And of course, there are many corporate interests who rely on cheap immigrant labor to push their profits higher.

The surge of Ted Cruz shows that many conservatives are worried about Trump’s ideological bona fides, and those concerns are well founded. But in the middle of a crisis this extraordinary, could the search for conservative purity be misguided? This isn’t just about the 15 million illegals already here; it’s about the exponential growth brought about by weak border security and reproduction. We’re creating a permanent underclass of unassimilated Mexicans that will push our entitlement system to the breaking point. Unless we fix this problem and fix it fast, the phrase “small government” will become utterly meaningless.