Poll Jolt: Governor Race Upended

totalconservative.com — A billionaire who has spent more than $200 million of his own money is now polling in the top three for California governor — and voters on both sides of the aisle are asking whether they’re witnessing a genuine political movement or democracy for sale.

At a Glance

Tom Steyer has risen to third place statewide at 19% in the final pre-primary UC Berkeley poll, trailing Xavier Becerra at 25% and closely trailing Steve Hilton at 21% in a tightening three-way race.
Steyer has personally spent more than $210 million on the campaign, prompting sharp criticism that his polling strength reflects advertising saturation rather than authentic voter enthusiasm.
Among independent, no-party-preference voters, Steyer runs roughly even with both Becerra and Hilton, suggesting his appeal is not limited entirely to Democratic partisans.
California’s open top-two primary means only the top two finishers advance to the general election, making the narrow margins between Steyer and Hilton critically important heading into June 2.

Three Candidates Separate From the Field

A University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll conducted May 19–24 among likely voters shows the California governor’s race consolidating around three candidates. Xavier Becerra leads at 25%, Steve Hilton follows at 21%, and Tom Steyer sits at 19%. The pollster told ABC7 News that “now we can kind of see with some clarity that it’s going to be Becerra, Hilton, and Steyer,” signaling that the once-crowded field has effectively narrowed to a three-person contest ahead of the June 2 primary.

A separate Emerson College poll found Becerra leading at 28%, with Steyer edging Hilton for second place. Among no-party-preference voters, the Berkeley survey showed the three frontrunners running roughly even — a detail that complicates the narrative that Steyer’s support is purely a product of Democratic base enthusiasm. The Los Angeles Times noted that among likely Democratic voters, Becerra led Steyer by 11 percentage points, meaning Steyer still holds a meaningful share of his own party’s electorate.

$210 Million Question: Spending or Support?

The unavoidable backdrop to Steyer’s polling rise is the sheer scale of his self-funding. KTLA reported that Steyer has personally spent approximately $210 million on the campaign. San Francisco Republican Party Chair Nick Berg, quoted by ABC7, called Steyer “very overexposed” after more than $192 million in advertising. That level of spending buys saturation — television, digital, mailers — and critics argue it explains name recognition gains more than genuine voter persuasion or policy alignment.

Steyer himself has pushed back on that framing. In his final pitch to California voters, he told KTLA, “We’re either tied or ahead,” and argued his campaign reflects real grassroots energy on issues including healthcare costs, utility bills, and education. The problem is that the available polling does not separate voters who support Steyer because of his platform from those who simply recognize his name after months of wall-to-wall advertising. That distinction matters — and neither the Berkeley nor the Emerson surveys provide issue-level crosstabs that would settle the question.

What the Race Reveals About California’s Political Landscape

California’s open top-two primary system adds a layer of strategic complexity that shapes how polling numbers should be read. Because only the top two finishers advance regardless of party, voters sometimes coalesce around candidates they perceive as viable rather than expressing deep ideological enthusiasm. Late movement toward Steyer could reflect genuine support, or it could reflect Democratic voters deciding he is their best alternative to Becerra. The Berkeley survey showed his support rising since March, but that rise coincides with both increased advertising and the natural thinning of a crowded field.

CEPP poll | 5/23-5/26 LV

California Governor jungle primary 2026

(Top two vote getters advance)

🟦Xavier Becerra 29%
🟥Steve Hilton 23%
🟦Tom Steyer 18%
🟥Chad Bianco 11%
🟦Katie Porter 8%
🟦Matt Mahan 4%
🟦Antonio Villaraigosa 3%

Link to poll: https://t.co/KEJWhxjDoz pic.twitter.com/2AL6zfhheg

— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) June 1, 2026

For voters across the political spectrum who are already skeptical of wealthy insiders shaping government outcomes, the Steyer candidacy crystallizes a familiar tension. Whether you lean left or right, the sight of a single billionaire spending $210 million to purchase a governor’s seat raises the same uncomfortable question: is this what representative democracy is supposed to look like? The polling shows Steyer is competitive. It does not show that money and votes are the same thing — and California voters will render that verdict on June 2.