As Israel and Hezbollah trade blows, Lebanon’s Shiite community bears the brunt of a conflict that’s eroding trust in the militant group’s promises.
At a Glance
- Over 1,400 Lebanese killed, mostly by airstrikes, with over a million displaced
- Israel conducting limited ground raids to push Hezbollah from border
- Biden administration supports Israel’s operations against Hezbollah
- Hezbollah’s reputation damaged as supporters question its strategy
- Potential for diplomatic solution as Hezbollah signals openness to ceasefire
Escalating Conflict Takes Toll on Lebanese Civilians
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has entered a new phase, with Israeli forces conducting ground operations in southern Lebanon. These incursions, which began in early November, aim to degrade Hezbollah’s military capabilities and push the militant group away from the Israeli border. The cost in human lives and displacement has been staggering, with over 1,400 Lebanese killed, primarily due to airstrikes, and more than a million civilians forced to flee their homes.
The Biden administration has expressed support for Israel’s limited military actions against Hezbollah. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller stated, “We do see Israel having the right to conduct these limited incursions to degrade Hezbollah’s capability.” This stance aligns with the U.S. goal of weakening Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon and potentially paving the way for political reforms.
Hezbollah’s Support Base Wavers
As the conflict persists, Hezbollah’s once-solid support among Lebanon’s Shiite community shows signs of erosion. The group’s reputation as a powerful force within the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance” has been damaged, with supporters questioning its effectiveness and strategy. The prolonged suffering of civilians, particularly in southern Lebanon and south Beirut’s suburbs, has led to growing discontent and skepticism about Hezbollah’s decision-making.
“We feel that everything is happening for no reason, for nothing,” said Hussein, a Hezbollah supporter quoted in the Christian Science Monitor.
This sentiment reflects a growing frustration among those who once championed Hezbollah’s operations, drawn by ideals of resistance and retribution against Israel. The sustained conflict has raised questions about Hezbollah’s commitment to its defense promises and its ability to protect the very communities it claims to defend.
International Efforts and Diplomatic Solutions
The United States and its allies are pursuing diplomatic efforts to address the root causes of the conflict and strengthen Lebanon’s political stability. The goal is to implement UN Resolution 1701, which calls for the withdrawal of Israeli forces and the deployment of Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon. However, critics argue that Hezbollah’s influence, backed by Iran, complicates these efforts.
“If the U.N. mission were doing its job and ensuring that there was a significant demilitarized zone just to the north of the Israeli border, up to the Litani River, Israel would not have had to invade and undertake the kind of military operations they are now,” said retired Navy Adm. James Stavridis.
Despite the ongoing military operations, there are signs of potential for a diplomatic solution. Hezbollah has signaled openness to a ceasefire, and former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has suggested that diplomacy may be more effective than prolonged conflict. “Why not try and make a deal now rather than to fight for half a year?” Olmert proposed.
Looking Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities
As the conflict continues, both Israel and Hezbollah face difficult choices. Israel’s military aims to conduct “limited, localized and targeted ground raids” to destroy Hezbollah infrastructure and allow displaced residents to return home. However, Hezbollah’s advantage in direct confrontations on Lebanese terrain poses significant challenges to these operations.
The international community, led by the United States, is working to strengthen Lebanon’s political system and its armed forces to ensure sovereignty and security. U.S. Ambassador Robert Wood emphasized, “The solution to this crisis is not a weaker Lebanon. It’s a strong and truly sovereign Lebanon, protected by a legitimate security force, embodied in the Lebanese Armed Forces.”
As the conflict evolves, the suffering of Lebanese civilians continues to mount, and Hezbollah’s standing among its core supporters faces unprecedented challenges. The coming weeks and months will be crucial in determining whether diplomatic efforts can prevail over military escalation, and whether Lebanon can chart a course towards stability and sovereignty in the face of regional tensions.
