Huge Undecided Bomb Hangs Over LA

Voter registration table with forms, pens, and informational materials — Photo: Joseph Sohm / Shutterstock

A new UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times poll shows Nithya Raman leading Mayor Karen Bass by 11 points in the Los Angeles mayor’s race, with one-third of voters still undecided.

Story Snapshot

Nithya Raman leads 39% to 28% among likely voters, with 33% undecided.
The online poll surveyed 2,150 likely voters from Sept. 15–20, ahead of Nov. 3 voting.
The large undecided bloc makes late shifts possible despite Raman’s lead.
Earlier surveys also found high indecision, showing a fluid electorate.

What The New Poll Says About The Race

UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, with the Los Angeles Times, found Nithya Raman at 39% and Mayor Karen Bass at 28% among likely voters. The survey reports 33% undecided, which is unusually high at this stage. The poll took place online from Sept. 15 to Sept. 20 and precedes mail-in ballots set to go out for the Nov. 3 election. Those details give the snapshot weight, while also reminding readers this race is still forming.

Media outlets across the spectrum echoed the topline. USA Today repeated the 39% to 28% split and flagged the large undecided share. Local television in Los Angeles also highlighted the double-digit spread. The consistency of the headline number across outlets does not change a key point. One in three likely voters has not yet picked a candidate, leaving both campaigns room to move the final outcome.

Why So Many Voters Still Have Not Chosen

Los Angeles polling this year has swung as undecided voters shift. A March survey showed more than half of voters had not made up their minds, and a May snapshot still found a notable undecided share. Those results suggested weak attachments and low enthusiasm across the field. Today’s 33% undecided fits that pattern. Polling experts say undecided voters add uncertainty that margins of error do not fully capture, especially when turnout models change late.

That uncertainty matters for both sides. Bass needs to consolidate Democrats who are not highly engaged and reassure voters on crime, homelessness, and cost of living. Raman needs to convert attention into firm support and address concerns about taxes, public order, and city services. With many voters still shopping for answers, late ads, union endorsements, and debate moments can sway views fast. The final weeks will test who meets everyday concerns most directly.

What This Means For Angelenos’ Core Concerns

Los Angeles voters have lived through rising rents, public safety worries, and deep frustration with city services. Many do not trust City Hall to fix broken systems. This poll reflects that mood. Voters are weighing two Democrats with different styles but similar pressure to deliver visible results. People on the right and left share a question: who will actually reduce street crime, lower housing costs, and clean up government waste without excuses or delay.

City leadership choices ripple beyond Los Angeles. Business owners watch tax and rule changes that affect hiring. Workers judge plans on wages, commutes, and safety. Homeowners and renters track zoning and fees that can make staying in the city hard. As voters consider a change at the top, they are also judging whether the political class hears them. A lead in a poll means little if the next mayor cannot execute on basics that keep a city livable.